Lynn:

Hope it's not too late to comment on your recent request for input... I've
been thinking about it for a few weeks and here are my thoughts - boiled
down.

Although these topics are not 'technical' modeling topics that you may have
been looking for, when it comes to growing the market for energy simulation
in the existing building environment I feel that these are fundamental
building blocks that we, as practicioners, need a solid foundation to build
upon and grow a customer base from. For me, it all comes down to using
appropriate modeling tools to make a financial case that investing in energy
efficiency is a (safe, wise, profitable) investment compared to alternative
investments within an understood tolerance of savings uncertainty. Some of
this amounts to 'financial' engineering, which is another layer of analysis
that I believe needs to be integrated into energy analysis procedures.

Content:

1) An Educational Session of Understanding Savings Uncertainty as it relates
to Calibrated Energy Simulation
* A primer on how ASHRAE Guideline 14 defines calibration metrics and
"savings uncertainty" for the Whole Building Calibrated Simulation path.
* Guidance on how to explain to clients how the 'quality' of actual
baseline energy data (motthly bills, large CV-RMSE, vs day-typed interval
meters with small CV-RMSE) largely determines achievable uncertainty limits,
and how additonal investment for submetering is required if resulting
uncertainty is unacceptable

2) An Educational Session on speaking the language of investment - to those
that invest.
* An understanding of how different capital improvements (and associated
energy cost reductions) effect an organization's income statement differenty
- such as EBIT and EBITDA.
* An understanding of how the financial positioning of a firm (strong in
cash, highly leveraged, etc.) make certain investments more attractive
regardless of model energy savings predictions.

3) An Educational Session on Financial Risk Management as it applies to
Energy Modeling.
* An understanding of how analysis tools such as parametrics, monte
carlo techniques, etc. can be used to generate multi-dimensional ways of
viewing potential investments in energy efficiency from an investment risk
management perspective, which quantify the potential for up-side as well as
downside risk in a stochiometric manner.

Location:
* Chicago (central location, both east and west coast folks likely able
to travel in one day)
* CYBERSPACE - I also like ASHRAE's digital delivery method that was
pioneered at the Orlando meeting for seminars, etc. My thoughts are to make
events like this as accessible as possible to the largest possible audience,
by providing options for delivering the content cost effectively and letting
people choose.

All the Best,

Chris Balbach, PE, CEM, CMVP